Created on:
March 9, 2022

Strategic Insights into the Ukrainian-Russian War: Part 2

Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt
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Strategic Insights into the Ukrainian-Russian War: Part 2

 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the International Relations landscape. It has also made nearly everyone who watches the news an armchair military strategy expert. The Policy Insights Forum (PIF), in partnership with Samuel Associates, has decided to cut through the noise around the War by interviewing our top defence experts each week. This is a five-part series authored by Jay Heisler, a Policy Research Associate with the PIF who is currently volunteering on the U.S. side of the Ukraine evacuation.

This week, we will discuss naval warfare strategy in the evolving conflict with retired Vice-Admiral Mark Norman. Mark is Canada’s former Vice-Chief of Defence: the second-highest appointment in the Canadian Armed Forces. As Senior Defence Strategist at Samuel Associates, VADM Norman looks forward to helping clients achieve their full potential in supporting the defence and security of Canadians. Mark provides a high-level strategy lesson in layman’s terms, a skill gained from years in a leadership role.

There are three main takeaways from Mark's analysis of Ukraine.

First, Mark explained that part of the incentive for Russia to invade Ukraine, to begin with, was actually a Naval incentive.

“In many respects, at the center of this geostrategy is access to saltwater,” Mark told us. “I think it's at the heart of the geo-strategic interests. It's not exclusively about access to saltwater, but that's one of the main factors.”

“The Black Sea has always been a significant part of the Russian fleet structure,” Mark told us. “Not enormous, but significant, with a considerable focus on amphibious capabilities and submarines.”

Second, Mark explained that there is an overlooked naval dimension to the Ukraine War, as Russia works to establish “bridgeheads and beachheads” and “to bring very capable long-range cruise missiles into the fight.”

“We’ve also seen very overt and arguably illegal acts by the Russian navy to attack and destroy commercial shipping in the Black Sea,” Mark added.

The third takeaway is where Mark got into the in-depth strategy of the war. We are grateful to Mark for breaking that down for us: the war has profound tactical, operational and strategic lessons to be studied for generations to come.

Mark explained that, on a tactical level, we are witnessing significant weaknesses becoming visible on the Russian side. Famously Russian forces are being bogged down in their advance on Ukraine's major cities, but Mark adds that "there seems to be a reluctance by the Russians to dismount their vehicles and engage.” Mark sees this as part of a broader trend of “doctrinal weaknesses” that are only now becoming apparent for Russia in their biggest external war in a generation.

Mark then explained that on an operational level, “what we’re clearly seeing is a shift in the approach by the Russians… It appears that their initial intent was to roll in quickly, take control of the major urban centers, and force a regime change. They appear to have abandoned that and seem to have pivoted.”

Mark says they now are using more “traditional” methods and “basically grinding it out on the ground.”

“They’re having logistical challenges, ”Mark added. “Resupplying their forces. Logistics 101, you don’t outrun the ability to support your own forces.”

Mark explained that a common saying in the military is, “Amateurs study tactics and professionals study logistics.” The author would add to Mark's point to note that this is also an under-explored part of studying Information Operations, propaganda, psychological operations and Soft Power – in a war where such things have unprecedented power.

Finally, Mark explained that, on a strategic level, Russia might be suffering losses but is not backing down.

“I think, from the Russian side, it appears clear that they're all in on this. There are no indications of any lack of interest to seize control of Ukraine on Russia's part, and to what end is not yet clear. How they intend to exercise control over Ukraine is equally unclear.”

Feel free to contact the Policy Insights Forum for more insights into the War. In the coming weeks, we will continue to discuss strategy in the Russian invasion with experts from Samuel Associates on the Air Force, Space and Cyber domains.

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