In September 2021, Associate Special Advisor with Samuel Associates and Policy Insights Forum Honourary Fellow, Dr. Jeffrey F.Collins, published a Paper on the requirements and options for Canada’s future submarine force with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa.
The Paper explains that the countdown to replace Canada's blue water submarine capabilities is on. If Canada wants to respond to the rising threat of China’s naval power, contribute to its national defence, and acquire patrol capabilities needed to assert our sovereignty in the Arctic, submarines are a necessity for the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN).
The Paper by Dr. Jeffrey Collins, with a foreword by Vice-Admiral (Ret’d) Mark Norman, Senior Defence Associate, Samuel Associates, illustrates the evolving geopolitical climate and outlines why submarines are required for Canada's Navy as part of its fleet structure. The Paper describes four main driving factors:
- Canada’s vast maritime domain requires them;
- the relative decline of the US increases the demand for more significant defence investment by Canada and other allies, and that means more submarines;
- the rapid build-up and aggressive posture of China’s navy and large maritime militia fleet will foster a market for submarine acquisitions in the wider Indo-Pacific; and
- the proliferation of comparatively inexpensive anti-access/area-denial weapons systems increases the importance of acquiring an undersea capability, as surface ships are highly vulnerable to such systems.
The Paper is well-timed as Australia announced its plan to acquire new nuclear submarines as part of a security and technology-sharing deal with the United Kingdom and the United States through the AUKUS pact. The Paper focuses on Canada's options for non-nuclear submarines due to their cost-saving potential, ability to undertake low-sound emitting operations due to its battery power, and the interoperability with the fleets also fielded by our allies.
Canada has lost its traditional sources of submarines as the US and UK have discontinued diesel-electric submarine production. In the Paper, Dr. Collins demonstrates three procurement options for Canada and the RCN to meet its potential submarine fleet replacement needs:
- Option 1 – Domestic Build – The National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS) is committed to the continuous, multi-decade domestic construction of federal vessels. For the submarine replacement, one or more NSS yards could build a “made in Canada" design or a Canadianized foreign design.
- Option 2 – Canadian Military-off-the-shelf (MOTS): Sweden, Spain, France, Germany, and Japan are established non-nuclear submarine producers with whom Ottawa could work in buying a Canadianized MOTS submarine. This is the most common and cost-conscious approach used by smaller allies.
- Option 3 – Collaborative Build: Canada can work with an established submarine builder to split production between the two countries or enter a joint financing arrangement. This would entail a complex arrangement involving intellectual property negotiations and higher costs than a Canadianized design.
To read the full Paper titled “Deadline 2036 – Assessing the requirements and options for Canada’s future submarine force”, published by the Macdonald Laurier Institute, please click HERE
Jeffrey F. Collins is an Associate Special Advisor at Samuel Associates and a Honourary Fellow with the Policy Insights Forum. He is also a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, and a Research Fellow with the Centre for the Study of Security and Development at Dalhousie University and the University of Manitoba's Centre for Defence and Security Studies. Jeffrey is an experienced policy advisor at the provincial and federal levels and has written and spoken widely on Canadian military and foreign affairs.
