Introduction

In The Path to 2075, Goldman Sachs forecasts a global economic realignment where China’s GDP surpasses that of the United States, reaching an estimated $57 trillion, with India close behind. The U.S., while remaining a top-three economy, is projected to fall into relative parity—not superiority—marking a profound shift in the post-WWII economic order. Canada, though not a top-tier player by size, is indispensable in any serious North American strategy to offset the structural rise of China.

This projection raises a strategic imperative: if the United States is to retain global economic influence—especially under democratic and rules-based frameworks—it cannot act alone. Nor can Canada thrive by leaning only on market access without a broader strategic redefinition. Instead, the two countries must explore an intentional path toward economic parity with China, rooted in integration, resilience, and innovation. That journey must begin now, working backward from the 2075 scenario to define what must be built—decade by decade—to achieve strategic convergence.

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Understanding Parity: Not Just GDP, but Systemic Influence

The anticipated “parity” between the U.S. and China is more than a race of GDP totals. It reflects a shift in systemic influence: who writes the trade rules, sets technological standards, controls supply chains, and shapes international institutions. China’s economic rise is coupled with a coordinated state-capitalist strategy that aligns its industrial policy, foreign policy, and technological ambition.

If the U.S. and its closest allies, including Canada, are to respond effectively, they must move beyond fragmented bilateralism toward purposeful economic integration. This doesn’t mean a supranational merger, but it does mean aligning policies, pooling resources, and jointly building the institutional architecture for a 21st-century North American competitiveness strategy.

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The Role of Canada: From Peripheral Player to Strategic Co-Author

Canada’s resource base, highly educated population, democratic governance, and alignment with U.S. security interests make it an ideal partner in this equation. However, its current posture is reactive rather than strategic. The long-term vision must see Canada not as a junior partner to the U.S., but as a co-author of a North American platform that can project global economic influence.

To achieve that, both countries must adopt a long-horizon approach. For Canada, this includes:

• Strategic sector integration in areas like critical minerals, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and green infrastructure.
• Talent and labour mobility, to maximize human capital utilization across borders.
• Institutional alignment, including shared investment vehicles and R&D funding platforms to scale innovation.

For this to be credible, Canada must also strengthen its domestic policy frameworks—regulatory clarity, infrastructure investment, and industrial incentives—to match the ambition of deeper bilateral cooperation.

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Working Backward from 2075: A Decadal Approach

To reach meaningful parity with China’s scale and systemic reach by 2075, the U.S. and Canada must adopt a reverse-engineered strategy. This includes clear objectives for each intervening decade:

• 2025–2035: Establish formal North American economic councils focused on supply chain security, innovation clusters, and bilateral industrial planning. Expand existing USMCA provisions to include data governance, AI regulation, and climate tech cooperation.
• 2035–2045: Launch a North American Sovereign Investment Mechanism to co-finance critical infrastructure and technology hubs. Establish shared procurement systems in defence and public sector IT. Integrate workforce planning and skilled visa pathways.
• 2045–2055: Introduce policy harmonization in high-growth sectors—green energy, biotech, aerospace—and formalize mutual economic resilience agreements (e.g., automatic cooperation on energy emergencies, cybersecurity threats, and capital market disruptions).
• 2055–2075: Transition from cooperation to institutional permanence—establishing a North American Competitiveness Pact that binds innovation standards, common market practices, and coordinated global trade policy.

The key to this long arc is early trust-building, beginning with modest but symbolic steps—such as shared research institutes or binational tech accelerators—that create the institutional muscle memory for deeper integration.

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Risks and Realism: Balancing Ambition with National Identity

A vision of U.S.-Canada economic convergence must be tempered by the reality that both societies guard their sovereignty closely. Canada, in particular, will resist anything that seems to compromise policy independence or subject it to U.S. political cycles. Likewise, the U.S. will be reluctant to tie its strategic direction to what maybe perceived as a smaller player.

But the path to 2075 does not require uniformity. It requires interoperability. The goal is not to erase national identity, but to construct a shared platform strong enough to anchor prosperity while flexible enough to evolve democratically.

The alternative—drifting in parallel while China deepens global dependencies through strategic infrastructure, standards diplomacy, and tech dominance—will leave North America diminished, reactive, and fragmented.

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A Strategic Horizon Demands Strategic Will

Goldman Sachs’ 2075 projection is not destiny. It is a warning—and an opportunity. For Canada and the United States, achieving economic parity with China is not simply about protecting the irrelative standing, but about preserving an open, rules-based, innovation-driven economic order.

To meet that challenge, both countries must begin now—working backward from the future, defining the institutions, investments, and policy alignments that will make a North American economic platform competitive, resilient, and globally influential.

The next fifty years will reward foresight, not nostalgia. A shared future must be built—not just imagined.