Strategic Insights into the Ukrainian-Russian War: Part 4

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the International Relations landscape. It has also made nearly everyone who watches the news an armchair military strategy expert. The Policy Insights Forum (PIF), in partnership with Samuel Associates, has decided to cut through the noise around the War by interviewing our top defence experts each week. This is a five-part series authored by Jay Heisler, a Policy Research Associate with the PIF who is currently volunteering on the U.S. side of the Ukraine evacuation.

This week, we will discuss aerospace strategy in a fast-moving conflict with retired Brigadier-General Rick Pitre, Former Director General for Space and C4ISR. C4ISR stands for Command, Control, Communications, Computers (C4) Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). A highly decorated Canadian Armed Forces veteran, Rick held a number of other high-level positions at the Department of National Defence, including as Commander of the Canadian Air Defence Sector for North American Air Defence (NORAD) and Director of Operations during 9-11. Rick was able to break down the complex air and space warfare concepts in layman's terms and with a great deal of practical relevance for understanding today’s military industries.

There were three main takeaways here: the concept of strategic 'centers of gravity', how technology has changed overtime, and the private sector's importance in modern-day conflicts.

First, Rick outlined that militaries look to exploit, degrade and or destroy their opponent's Centres of Gravity, the elements that define their national strengths and power. In this case, both Russia and Ukraine need to hit each other’s strategic ‘centers of gravity'. This includes both their moral and physical attributes.

“Moral attributes can be will, will to fight,” Rick told us. “Physical attributes can be all the things one wields as elements of national power: Could be the military, the sophistication of the weapons systems, and, or sheer size and quality of the force.

“From an economic perspective, the centers of gravity are the physical attributes, including a nation’s industrial capacity,” Rick added.“ The ability to keep the War going, the lights on, lines of communication open; these are the other key Centres of Gravity - energy and communications networks. There are others such as supply lines, Command and Control and Early Warning, Air Defence systems etc. Prioritizing and systematically rendering them ineffective can change the Centre of Gravity balance one way or the other. ‘One thing is becoming clearer as the conflict evolves; we clearly over-estimated one side and vastly under-estimated the other where centres of gravity were concerned.’

Second, Rick explained that technology advancements have been something that the world is witnessing in real-time and needs to now catch up with. Although, Rick explains this goes back even further, to the early 1990s. Seen in action, the new technological world we live in has wildly changed the conventional battlefield in ways that might have been overlooked as the world changed around various U.S. counterinsurgency efforts after the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

“The first Gulf War might have been the first modern use of space,” Rick told us. It’s been 30 years, and we’ve seen massive advances.”

Rick explained that this included fire-and-forget capabilities, such as the Russians hammering Ukraine with high precision-guided cruise missiles launched from ships well away from the battlefield in the Sea of Azov and hitting targets with pinpoint accuracy.

“We’ve seen the ability for the Russians to affect the battlespace from afar with standoff weapons well out of harm’s way.”

Third, Rick explained the importance of the commercial Space sector on today's battlefield.

“Where Space was once the domain of an exclusive and limited group of nations, today, you don't even have to be a traditional space-faring nation to have space capability," Rick explained". As long as you have access to it in the open markets, for example, the vast array of very advanced commercial satellite imagery you possess, is by its very nature, Space capability.

An example of a Space company having an impact is Satellogic, which has partnered with the Halifax International Security Forum to assist the government of Ukraine in the War. The Halifax International Security Forum is one of Canada's biggest annual international events, bringing top military and political leaders to sleepy Halifax, Nova Scotia, to discuss defending democracy.

The Russians did not count on this side of space warfare, and, if they did, they vastly underestimated its potency.

“They’ve underestimated the compounding effect of real-time, actionable high-resolution commercial satellite imagery", Rick told us. "We've seen the sophistication of commercial satellite systems… advance to the point where companies can provide this satellite imagery quickly and with such a level of detail that it can be used in near real-time by commanders in the field. While it won’t outright replace the very specialized imagery from military unique satellite systems. Having access to the new age of highly sophisticated satellite imagery, to a certain extent, levels the playing field for those who may not possess them or be able to access them". “You don’t necessarily need to have a full-fledged satellite building program! You can have a pretty formidable space capability with today's options."

Feel free to contact the Policy Insights Forum for more insights into the War. In the coming weeks, we will continue to discuss strategy in the Russian invasion with experts from Samuel Associates on the Cyber domain.