Created on:
March 2, 2022

Strategic Insights into the Ukrainian-Russian War: Part 1

Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt
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Strategic Insights into the Ukrainian-Russian War: Part 1

 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the International Relations landscape. It has also made nearly everyone who watches the news an armchair military strategy expert. The Policy Insights Forum (PIF), in partnership with Samuel Associates, has decided to cut through the noise around the War by interviewing our top defence experts each week. This is a five-part series authored by Jay Heisler, a Policy Research Associate with the PIF who is currently volunteering on the U.S. side of the Ukraine evacuation.

This week, we will discuss land warfare strategy in a fast-moving conflict with retired Lieutenant-General Michel Maisonneuve. Michel’s senior appointments included Assistant Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff of Canada and the first Chief of Staff of NATO's Supreme Allied Command Transformation. He served in the Canadian missions to Bosnia and Kosovo, and he is able to discuss complex military concepts in layman's terms with ease. Hardly an ordinary skill!

Michel notes that the war hits home, as his wife is half-Ukrainian. He told us that in her Facebook posts about the conflict, she not only congratulated Ukrainians on bravely fighting for their freedoms but also added, "and well done, you Canadians" due to Canada's staunch support of Ukraine through the training mission Op UNIFIER.

“In 20 years, the Ukrainians have improved their forces,” Michel said. “OP UNIFIER has helped them become much more effective.”

Michel gave us a dizzying run-down of the situation in the war, ranging from the vulnerability of a Russian tank convoy to the risks of fighting over Chernobyl. However, the war is fast-moving, and there were three takeaways that will likely hold steady throughout the war.

First, Michel notes that Russian forces used a conventional invasion approach of weakening the enemy ahead of a push to take more territory. “At the beginning, they were trying to use the usual method of assault, softening up targets with missiles and artillery,” Michel notes. However, Michel points out that the Russians are “facing a lot tougher resistance than they thought they would.”

While the media has widely agreed that the Russian advance has been sluggish and an embarrassment for an increasingly isolated Russia, this might be the key to its shortcomings. The 'softening up' of Ukraine simply did not proceed as planned, as, for example, disabling air defences proved more difficult than anyone anticipated, and major cities proved well-defended by the Ukrainian Army.

Second, Michel notes that Russia does have another weakness in the war. While Russia is waging a war of aggression, and while there have been hundreds of civilian casualties, Russia appears to be attempting to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible. Russia has so far avoided a strategy of inflicting mass civilian casualties intentionally, which was not necessarily ‘a given’ considering Russian strategy in Syria.

“They’re unable to keep social media from publicizing pictures," Michel told us. "They don't want to see that. Look at the Americans in Afghanistan. By mistake, they'd hit a hospital, and they don't want that kind of bad press. They're already getting enough bad press."

While it is certain that some of Ukraine's civilian casualties at the hands of Russia are intentional and added that Russia has hit some medical centers and schools, Russia seems to be attempting to avoid alienating the majority of Ukrainians. This is a taboo discussion in wartime, especially in light of Russia’s deliberate targeting of some civilians in the war. However, a clear-eyed appraisal of Russia’s strategy is that Putin is so far avoiding the appearance of a mass slaughter of civilians deliberately. However, the consensus in media is that this effort to maintain ‘hearts and minds’ is meeting challenges as civilian casualties mount.

Third, Michel explained that a normal battle strategy for an invasion of a country by U.S. or Western forces usually dictates a ratio of your forces versus enemy forces of at least 3 to 1.

“Here’s Putin with only 150,000 troops ready to invade across a huge border,” Michel told us about Putin's invasion of a country with over 44 million inhabitants and a slightly larger military than Russia's invading force. “Not a 3 to 1 ratio that we in the West were always ready to use in the Cold War for an attack.”

“To attack a platoon, you would need at least a company," Michel added. "To attack a company, you would need at least a battalion. Definitely doesn’t have the 3 to 1 ratio at this moment.”

Feel free to contact the Policy Insights Forum for more insights into the War. In the coming weeks, we will discuss strategy in the Russian invasion with experts from Samuel Associates on the Navy, Air Force and specialists on the warfare side of Space and Cyber.

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